But Gundlach does not necessarily view a yield curve’s flattening as a rising likelihood of an imminent recession, as other indicators like high-yield bond spreads do not suggest the same level.
The Significance of a Flattening Yield Curve and How to Trade It With many investors confused over what a flattening yield curve means, we address such questions as why the curve flattens and.
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Flatter Curve Not a Threat to the Cycle . The combination of tighter monetary policy by the Fed, which should lift the short-end of the US yield curve, and accommodative policy overseas, which should anchor the long-end, argues for additional curve flattening, by our analysis. However, we see below-average recession risk until the curve inverts.
Inverted yield curves do not occur that often, and generally when they do occur, do not last long. Another possible shape of a yield curve is a flat curve. A flat yield curve occurs when all maturities have similar yields and signals uncertainty in the economy.
On its own, a flattening yield curve is not an imminent threat to US equities. Under similar circumstances over the past 40 years, the S&P has continued to rise and a recession has been a year or more in the future. Investors should expect the yield curve to flatten further in the months ahead.</p>
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A record wide gap between the yields of two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes may have more to say about the threat of inflation. dated U.S. bonds could fall. The yield.
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A steeply inverted yield curve that goes on long enough is like having 108° fever. Both banks and shadow lenders go upside down on their “book” and stop making loans. That can freeze the economy and makes a garden-variety recession even worse. Which is why any central bank facing that scenario lowers rates and fights the yield curve.