A flattening yield curve is not a threat to mortgage insurers

But Gundlach does not necessarily view a yield curve’s flattening as a rising likelihood of an imminent recession, as other indicators like high-yield bond spreads do not suggest the same level.

The Significance of a Flattening Yield Curve and How to Trade It With many investors confused over what a flattening yield curve means, we address such questions as why the curve flattens and.

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Flatter Curve Not a Threat to the Cycle . The combination of tighter monetary policy by the Fed, which should lift the short-end of the US yield curve, and accommodative policy overseas, which should anchor the long-end, argues for additional curve flattening, by our analysis. However, we see below-average recession risk until the curve inverts.

Inverted yield curves do not occur that often, and generally when they do occur, do not last long. Another possible shape of a yield curve is a flat curve. A flat yield curve occurs when all maturities have similar yields and signals uncertainty in the economy.

On its own, a flattening yield curve is not an imminent threat to US equities. Under similar circumstances over the past 40 years, the S&P has continued to rise and a recession has been a year or more in the future. Investors should expect the yield curve to flatten further in the months ahead.</p>

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A record wide gap between the yields of two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes may have more to say about the threat of inflation. dated U.S. bonds could fall. The yield.

She has been writing for National Mortgage News since 1995. She also has worked on other SourceMedia publications as an. [Most read] Eric Trump says he was spat on at Chicago’s Aviary. They are very actively collaborating," said Mark Weisbrot, who is co-director of the Center for Economic and.

A steeply inverted yield curve that goes on long enough is like having 108° fever. Both banks and shadow lenders go upside down on their “book” and stop making loans. That can freeze the economy and makes a garden-variety recession even worse. Which is why any central bank facing that scenario lowers rates and fights the yield curve.